As global temperatures continue to rise and the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 degrees Celsius goal becomes more difficult to achieve, the UNFCCC process could benefit from:

• embracing a continued role for multilateral negotiations at the core of the process
• using the normative power of the UNFCCC strategically and sparingly and more effectively and efficiently
• measuring progress predominantly by reference to the impact of implemented national level policies
• using and improving existing processes created by the Paris Agreement, rather than creating new ones
• focusing as much on enhancing international cooperation to deliver implementation as on increasing formal ambition
• moving toward a non-negotiated common understanding of what the global equilibrium point of net-zero emissions in 2050 would look like
• a thorough and honest analysis of the value add of the UNFCCC process
• celebrating the successes that the Paris Agreement and UNFCCC process have delivered.

For COP30 to succeed, it must: (i) deliver on mandated negotiated items; and (ii) effectively respond to what is likely to be an insufficient collective level of ambition of submitted NDCs, including through better alignment of the action agenda to deliver on what has already been agreed by Parties. COP30 could also usefully celebrate the action of Parties thus far to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, including through the facilitative multilateral consideration of progress (FMCP).

The COP30 Presidency’s fourth letter, which lays out a vision for an action agenda that is aligned with the outcomes of the first global stoctake, exemplifies a shift toward COPs focusing on enhancing international cooperation and implementation as much as they do on increasing formal ambition. If implemented, this would mark the most significant evolution of the UNFCCC process since the Paris Agreement was adopted.

The post Achieving a More Effective UNFCCC Process appeared first on Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.

While the proposal was not fully elaborated, reportedly the Council would be established under the UN with the purpose of supporting the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), including by accelerating the implementation of the Paris Agreement through stronger governance, expedited decision making, coordination of key actors, fragmented processes and mechanisms, and raising climate finance.

The intention is for the Council to be established in 2026 by a resolution of the UN General Assembly (GA). There is precedent for such an approach; for example, the establishment of the Human Rights Council.

This paper considers some of the issues and options related to the establishment of a Council.

Questions for Consideration

• Is there a case for a new Council?
• If yes, what specific functions would it perform and what value would it add?
• Where and how should the Council be established?

The post The Proposal for a New Climate Change Council (Discussion Paper) appeared first on Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.

There are a number of reasons for this, including: rising emissions, even as countries’ nationally determined contributions (NDC) have become more ambitious over time; evidence that 2024 saw the world reach the 1.5-degree-C limit; increasingly severe, frequent, and visible global climate impacts; a challenging geopolitical context, including the outcome of recent elections; the timing of COP29 in a relatively fallow part of the PA cycle, following on from the ‘big’ global stocktake (GST) COP in Dubai; significant dissatisfaction with the quantum of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance agreed in Baku; and the letter published by the Club of Rome during COP29.

This paper poses several questions in the lead-up to COP30, including:

• Why is the Paris Agreement not catalyzing climate action at the pace and scale needed?
• In addition to nationally determined contributions (NDC), how can international cooperation be enhanced so as to close the gap between ambition and implementation?
• How can we best use the existing international climate regime and institutions to make the Paris Agreement deliver in today’s political realities?
• What would success at COP30 look like?

The post The Paris Agreement: A Moment for Reflection appeared first on Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.

In the short term, Parties must land a positive outcome on finance at COP29. Public finance must unquestionably continue to play a central role in climate action, particularly for countries or issues that cannot attract private finance at scale. The process toward agreeing the new collective quantified goal on climate finance (NCQG) in Baku must assure developing country Parties in that regard. Additionally, given the limits to public sector donor climate finance, the NCQG must also generate confidence that climate finance will flow from many sources and will not be limited to the narrow confines of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

NCQG discussions could usefully consider how developing country needs could be integrated into a holistic multi-layered approach which would consider lessons learned, including precedent from other fora, such as the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement will require a shift in the dynamic of climate finance discussions, necessitating political input from finance ministers and Heads of Government. Without this, progress will continue to be limited and uncoordinated. To this end, the UN Secretary-General could consider re-launching the High-Level Advisory Group on Finance in 2025.

The post Rising to the Climate Finance Challenge appeared first on Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.

Parties will revisit guidance for NDC features at the sixth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA6) in November 2024. To explore NDC features, potential challenges related to upcoming negotiations on NDC features, considerations for further guidance, and normative requirements for NDCs, please see the paper Features and Normative Requirements for Nationally Determined Contributions: Technical Paper.

The post What are Investable NDCs? (Discussion Paper) appeared first on Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.

This report first examines whether the logic of the regime, and the Paris Agreement in particular, is effective. The Paris Agreement is having a positive impact: if nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, projected global temperature rise would be around 1 degree C less than it would have been had the agreement not been adopted. Yet the pace of action is not enough to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement—the world is on track to overshoot 1.5 degrees C, and even staying within 2 degrees C of warming is far from certain. Clearly, incremental improvements in climate ambition and implementation are not enough. A transformational shift is essential.

The report then examines how the regime’s “norm-setting” function can be strengthened to make it fit for an evolving purpose, remain functionally relevant, and deliver on the goals of the Paris Agreement. More specifically, recommendations are made in the following areas:

• enhancing ambition and fairness by increasing peer pressure that encourages and inspires ambition in light of different national circumstances and fair shares
• accelerating implementation and strengthening accountability across sectors and within nations with improved systems and processes to understand and follow up on the progress made
• strengthening cooperative action on adaptation and loss & damage (L&D) in the context of urgent needs and overshoot pathways
• expanding coverage to prepare for the future demands that will require agreement on a range of issues that are currently not addressed by the regime well or at all
• streamlining and fine-tuning processes to enhance responsiveness to an evolving purpose.

Finally, this report reviews the regime’s catalytic role in the wider landscape of climate action. The wider landscape includes relevant international organizations and agreements, international cooperative initiatives (ICIs), multilateral development banks (MDBs), international financial institutions (IFIs), and voluntary commitments by non-Party stakeholders (NPS). There is considerable potential in leveraging the actors in this landscape to narrow remaining ambition and implementation gaps in relation to mitigation, adaptation, and means of implementation, as well as fulfilling governance functions in ways that complement and reinforce the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process.

At the same time, there remain core challenges related to transparency, accountability, and the thematic and geographical balance of the wider landscape. To ensure that this wider landscape effectively contributes to and strengthens the catalytic role of the climate regime, this report highlights key findings and makes the following broad recommendations:

• Parties should harness existing agenda items under the UN climate regime, or establish a targeted mechanism or process, to foster substantive exchanges with other international organizations and treaties, including IFIs, and to recognize, consider, and promote alignment of their goals and actions with the objectives of the Paris Agreement.
• Parties should enhance the role of, and engagement with, all types of ICIs, in the context of an upgraded Global Climate Action Portal, including by strengthening their transparency and accountability as well as their thematic and geographical balance.

Parties, the UNFCCC Secretariat, the High-Level Climate Champions/Marrakech Partnership, the UN Secretary-General, and/or the Conference of Parties (COP) Presidencies could advance and implement these recommendations variously, including through leveraging the GST process.

The post Re-invigorating the UN Climate Regime in the Wider Landscape of Climate Action appeared first on Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.

It lays out the certainty of impact, feasibility, and barriers of each key signal, as well as existing initiatives working toward its implementation, relevant sustainable development goals, and options for outcomes of the GST at COP28. The report also underscores the importance of linking the GST outcomes to active progress in 2024 and updated nationally determined contributions in 2025.

The post A Solutions-oriented Approach to the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake appeared first on Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.

Several different formulations for an overarching goal have been proposed formally and informally through the GlaSS programme and related discussions. In this brief, some of these proposals will be explored while highlighting their benefits, drawbacks, and considerations. The brief concludes by looking at how Parties can work toward the successful adoption of a GGA framework from now through COP28.

The post Options for a Politically-Salient Headline for the Global Goal on Adaptation appeared first on Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.